Posted in Banks, Capitalism, Credit Crunch, Gordon Brown, Great Depression 2.0, Mervyn King, Royal Bank of Scotland on March 2nd, 2009
Gordon Brown, former British Chancellor, now Prime Minister, has come in for weighty criticism in recent days for his failure to spot and stop the runaway disaster that is the British economy.
Lord Turner, new head of the Financial Services Authority (FSA), blames Brown when Chancellor for the failure of regulation which led to catastrophic losses at Northern Rock, HBOS and RBS.
“They existed within a political philosophy where all the pressure on the FSA was not to say ‘why aren’t you looking at these business models?’, but ‘why are you being so heavy and intrusive, can’t you make your regulation a bit more light touch?’,” he said.
“We were supervising people like HBOS within a particular philosophy of the way you do regulation, which I think in retrospect was wrong. I think (the FSA’s actions were) a competent execution of a style of regulation and a philosophy in regulation which was, in retrospect, mistaken.”
Similarly, Bank of England Governor Mervyn King claims he has been shouting warnings for years about risky lending without any response from Brown.
It is on the record that Brown delivered a speech in the City urging them to take even greater risks.
The Prime Minister is now trying to cover the mess up by throwing the kitchen sink at sacked RBS boss Fred Goodwin’s enormous pension. Significantly this was done as the Treasury unveiled its third bank bailout in the form of a £325 billion insurance scheme for desperate RBS.
Meanwhile the head of the Audit Commission, Steve Bundred, warned that public debt is at “Armageddon levels” and will exceed two-thirds of the entire annual economic output of the country.
As Brown heads for Washington to try to convince the new adminstration to set up a “global regulatory system” the rest of us should ask why we should believe him now when he failed so spectacularly for 12 years.
Posted in Bank of England, Charles Bean, Credit Crunch, Deflation, Financial Markets, Great Depression 2.0, Recession on February 16th, 2009
Bank of England Deputy Governor, Charles Bean, indicated today that the Bank is moving relentlessly towards the most controversial form of “printing money”, buying gilts, or Treasury bonds.
He spoke in the context of a further adjustment on the downside for GDP this year. The previous forecast was -4 percent. That now has a 75 percent chance of going lower still.
Although the Bank has been tinkering with “quantitative easing”, as it’s known, it was not clear whether it would wheel out the big gun of covering government debt.
Charles Bean also indicated that further cuts in interest rates are likely, falling from the current level of 1 percent to, presumably, the American level of a tiny squeak above zero.
He was said to be relaxed about the fall in sterling and an additional tweaking of rates lower, indicating that the falling pound is not high on the alarm agenda right now.
The BoE believes a further rate cut is necessary before it can begin full-scale quantitative easing.
Posted in Bank of England, Banks, Credit Crunch, Eurozone, IMF, Macroeconomics, Money, Recession, finance on January 28th, 2009
The International Monetary Fund, as predicted, is now forecasting that British gross domestic product will contract 2.8pc this year, worse than the U.S., the eurozone and Japan.
Last year we reported here on the first use of the “T” word (trillion) for losses across the banking sector. Now we’re into the “2T” word, a graphic indication of how much conditions are deteriorating around the globe.
The IMF expects the US economy to contract 1.6 percent; Japan to shrink 2.6 percent and the eurozone to decline 2 percent. Overall, the IMF expects the global economy to expand 0.5 percent, its weakest showing since the Second World War.
Economists at the IMF also estimated that bank losses may reach $2.2 trillion, almost twice the $1.4 trillion the organization predicted in October.
It warned that, “unless stronger financial strains and uncertainties are forcefully addressed, the pernicious feedback loop between real activity and financial markets will intensify, leading to even more toxic effects on global growth.”
In Britain, the bank bail-out is already projected to take national debt to 8 percent of GDP, and today the Institute Fiscal Studies warned that national debt levels are unlikely to return to the pre-crisis levels for more than 20 years.
Posted in Credit Crunch, Financial Markets, Gordon Brown, Money, Risk, finance on January 20th, 2009
The UK Daily Telegraph is reporting that an unnamed rating agency is set to cut Britain’s credit rating following yesterday’s calamitous fall in bank shares and the government’s astonishing blank cheque for the banks.
Edmund Conway writes that this is only a whisper, but given the S&P reduction in Spain’s rating just days ago, it has the ring of truth.
Should it happen, it will put up the interest paid on “gilt-edged” government bonds, and filter through to almost every part of the economy.
Unlike Spain and Ireland, however, Britain has the advantage of a free-floating exchange rate that acts as a safety valve for the economy when times are tough. With interest rates approaching zero, more strings become available to pull, despite the apparent loss of monetary control.
However, the astonishing 96 percent fall in the share value of giant international lender, Royal Bank of Scotland — now 70 percent owned by the government — has led to some commentators calling the UK “Iceland on Thames”.
It would be a big blow to the fragile ego of Gordon Brown in particular. He knows that “his watch” has lasted 12 years and a catastrophe will destroy what little reputation he has left.
Should Brown be placed on suicide watch?