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Moneyizor
Moneyizor

UK economy struggles in adverse climate

Gordon Brown New figures show that the UK economy shrank by 2.4pc in the first quarter of this year. This is a revised number down from the 1.9pc previously reported.

It shows that the UK is in a much worse downturn than many expected and so-called green shoots of recovery are isolated statistical blips.

Many forecasters are now turning away from the much-hyped V-shaped recovery pattern, and even a more leisurely U-shape, to a wobbly “W”, or double-dip delayed type of recovery.

It’s clear the British economy is still in freefall. As in the 1980s, the biggest decline has been in manufacturing. While the public sector has continued to grow, the makers of things have taken blow after blow.

The weakest sectors have been new housebuilding and car making.

This is beginning to look very serious indeed for UK industry and any company in the private sector.

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Bank of England to buy government debt

Bank of England Bank of England Deputy Governor, Charles Bean, indicated today that the Bank is moving relentlessly towards the most controversial form of “printing money”, buying gilts, or Treasury bonds.

He spoke in the context of a further adjustment on the downside for GDP this year. The previous forecast was -4 percent. That now has a 75 percent chance of going lower still.

Although the Bank has been tinkering with “quantitative easing”, as it’s known, it was not clear whether it would wheel out the big gun of covering government debt.

Charles Bean also indicated that further cuts in interest rates are likely, falling from the current level of 1 percent to, presumably, the American level of a tiny squeak above zero.

He was said to be relaxed about the fall in sterling and an additional tweaking of rates lower, indicating that the falling pound is not high on the alarm agenda right now.

The BoE believes a further rate cut is necessary before it can begin full-scale quantitative easing.

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Rating agency to snip UK’s credit terms

Gordon Brown The UK Daily Telegraph is reporting that an unnamed rating agency is set to cut Britain’s credit rating following yesterday’s calamitous fall in bank shares and the government’s astonishing blank cheque for the banks.

Edmund Conway writes that this is only a whisper, but given the S&P reduction in Spain’s rating just days ago, it has the ring of truth.

Should it happen, it will put up the interest paid on “gilt-edged” government bonds, and filter through to almost every part of the economy.

Unlike Spain and Ireland, however, Britain has the advantage of a free-floating exchange rate that acts as a safety valve for the economy when times are tough. With interest rates approaching zero, more strings become available to pull, despite the apparent loss of monetary control.

However, the astonishing 96 percent fall in the share value of giant international lender, Royal Bank of Scotland — now 70 percent owned by the government — has led to some commentators calling the UK “Iceland on Thames”.

It would be a big blow to the fragile ego of Gordon Brown in particular. He knows that “his watch” has lasted 12 years and a catastrophe will destroy what little reputation he has left.

Should Brown be placed on suicide watch?

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Bank of England cuts interest rate

Bank of England It was hardly a well-kept secret. The Bank of England had received a raft of appalling numbers from the real economy this week. It was bound to cut rates deep today.

An hour ago, the Old Lady of Threadneedle Street duly obliged and cut by 100 basis points to two percent, the lowest figure since 1951.

It is clear that this is going to be a steeper and longer slump than most forecasters would own to until very recently. Next year will see the deepest of economic winters across the world.

Reflecting the gloomy forecasts, other central banks are slashing rates too.

Sweden’s central bank today cut its key rate by a record 175 basis points, to two percent, the largest since 1992 when the country famously nationalized its major banks.

New Zealand also announced a cut of 150 basis points to a five-year low of five percent. Further cuts are on the cards.

Indonesia made a surprise 25 basis-point cut to its rate, to 9.25 percent.

Yesterday, the Bank of Thailand cut rates by 100 basis points to 2.75 percent, some of which may have been due to recent political turmoil in the country.

On Tuesday, the Reserve Bank of Australia surprised markets with a 100 basis-point cut to 4.25 percent.

The European Central Bank is expected to cut again today, but signals are mixed. The Shadow ECB has called for swift, deep cuts from its current rate of 3.25 percent. However, voices close to the ECB warned not to expect them. The lack of a strategy is a major criticism of the “Bank without a Treasury”.

All bank authorities are aware that 2010 is the year when inflation will return with a vengeance if a prolonged deflation can be avoided. Most are fighting the latter tooth and nail, while making noises about having the medium term under control.

We shall see.

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