UK producer prices data released today show how quickly the recession is developing. The cost of manufacturers’ raw materials dropped by 3.3 percent in November. Add in the rapid falls in oil and commodity prices and even lower figures lie ahead.

Among economists, “quantitative easing” is the topic of the moment. QE, as it’s abbreviated, means getting money in people’s pockets quickly.

Dropping banknotes out of helicopters is an image often used, but basically, central banks simply print more money and buy assets like shopaholics. They may purchase companies, corporate or government bonds, infrastructure projects, anything they can lay their hands on at short notice, in fact.

Howard Archer from IHS Global Insight: “The further substantial falls in producer output and input prices in November reinforces belief that consumer price inflation will plunge over the coming months in reaction to sharply lower oil and commodity prices, waning food prices, contracting economic activity, faster rising unemployment, December’s VAT cut and very favourable base effects. These factors seem certain to easily outweigh the inflationary impact of the very weak pound. Indeed, it seems highly likely that consumer price inflation will move back below the Bank of England’s 2pc target level in the early months of 2009 and will turn negative during the second half of the year.

“Consequently, we expect the Bank of England to enact a further hefty interest rate cut in January as it attempts to limit the length and depth of the recession. At this stage, we forecast the Bank of England to reduce interest rates by a further 75 basis points from 2.00pc to 1.25pc in January, but we would not rule out a larger cut if the economic downturn continues to deepen. We expect interest rates to fall to a low of 0.50pc in the second quarter of 2009 and then stay there for the rest of the year. However, it is far from inconceivable that interest rates could come all the way down to zero.”

Deflation is now the biggest, persistent threat to Western economies. Inflation, recently the major enemy, has swiftly retreated, as widely predicted.

In Britain, many are now waking up to the gravity of the situation. Former Chancellor of the Exchequer, Ken Clarke, has dismissed comparisons with the 1970s, ’80s and ’90s, likening current conditions explicitly with 1929/30.

Normally cautious Bank of England Governor, Mervyn King, forecasts a 2 percent contraction in the British economy next year, with interest rates falling rapidly to nought percent for the first time in history.

Deflation is now the enemy we must all factor in to our expectations in the near-to-medium terms. So why is deflation necessarily worse than inflation?

In an era of massive indebtedness, both private and public, deflation increases the burden. As incomes decline, debts remain the same — at levels signed for in better times. It’s the exact opposite of the apparent wealth created during periods of rapidly rising house prices.

Professor Peter Spencer of York University says, “It is going to be absolute murder in Britain if inflation turns negative. The big difference with past episodes is that we are now much more heavily indebted. Few people owned their own houses in 1930s. Debts were miniscule.”

Another symptom of deflation is that consumers wait for lower prices before shopping, causing job-losses in the High Street and yet more bad economic news. Japan’s “lost decade” of the 1990s is the technically-perfect example of this psychology of fear taking hold. It is still suffering.

So what can be done either to pre-empt or cure the curse of falling prices across the board?

Curiously, Keynesianism which, in its misinterpreted version is disastrous in normal times, does hold out some hope in depressive conditions. Expect central banks to start printing money soon and dropping it from helicopters, if they haven’t started already. Want to buy some rising stock? Buy helicopter shares. [This is not financial advice.]

If you’re one of those noble souls who saved assiduously during the asset bubbles, you will just have to stand by and watch the profligate oafs who caused the problem clean up, while your own responsible hoard of value drains away.

It’s just not fair, but it will probably have to happen “for the greater good”.

You have only one consolation: you can give the politicians who presided over the madness a good kicking at the next electoral opportunity.

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John Maynard Keynes has never been so popular. The name of this world famous British economist, who died in 1946, is on everyone’s lips these days, including Gordon Brown’s.

However, Keynes’s ideas are often misrepresented, or misunderstood, by both Left and Right in politics.

The Left believes his economic strictures are for all occasions, when they were proposed for slump conditions only. The Right thinks his views were Marxist and should never soil their delicate monetarist palette.

In fact Keynes had a lot to say about monetary policy. His flaw is that he was too broad brush on inflation, even appearing to brush it away.

Roger Bootle of Capital Economics has written an excellent summary-for-dummies on Keynes and Keynesianism in the UK’s Daily Telegraph.

Read it here

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A dollar default is unthinkable in these affluent modern times. Or is it?

Last week a “flight to safety” of investors in America’s $3.5 trillion Treasury money market was only halted by Secretary Henry Paulson’s swift action in nationalising the banking sector’s bad debts.

Read The Great Harvard Sausage Scandal 2008 over at Syntagma.

Of course, most of the movers and shakers have already salted away their massive bonuses and are probably even now relaxing with a cocktail or two on their yachts in Monte Carlo harbour.

They have left us with a colossal mountain to climb. In the UK, house prices have a further 25-30 percent to fall, according to Roger Bootle, and already Britain’s largest mortgage lender, HBOS, has failed. How many other banks will go before we hit bottom?

Read the rest of the article.