The UK is fortunate that Tony Blair didn’t get his way on abolishing the pound.

Why? Morgan Kelly, Professor of Economics at University College Dublin, believes that Ireland — which did join the euro — is “no longer a sovereign nation in any meaningful sense of that term.”

Writing in the Irish Times, he says: “By next year Ireland will have run out of cash, and the terms of a formal bailout will have to be agreed. Our bill will be totted up and presented to us, along with terms for repayment. On these terms hangs our future as a nation. … Sovereign nations get to make policy choices, and we are no longer a sovereign nation in any meaningful sense of that term.”

The country is thought to be close to losing its access to international debt markets. Jens Peter Soerensen, Chief Analyst at Danske Bank, a primary dealer in Irish government bonds, has said that “It’s close to a buyers’ strike at this point.”

Open Europe reports that EU Economic and Monetary Affairs Commissioner Olli Rehn will arrive in Dublin later today to hold meetings with Irish Finance Minister Brian Lenihan and the opposition parties to discuss the government’s proposed budget cuts for 2011.

Ireland’s already eye-watering austerity measures have seen the loss of 20% of its economy, while its banking sector remains mired in bad debt and inadequate capital resources.

Membership of the euro currency zone is hampering government efforts to deal with the crisis by preventing a devaluation, which would make exports more competitive in international markets.

A classic Irving Fisher debt-deflationary spiral is underway with tragic consequences for the Emerald Isle.

The UK’s Coalition Government has already signed up to a triple EU regulatory regime for the City of London. It would do well to hang onto as much autonomy as it can. If leaving the EU is not on the agenda, a refusal to be bossed about by Brussels is the next best option.

This article first appeared in our sister publication Devon & Cornwall Online.

Société Générale’s key strategist, Albert Edwards, has warned of an impending bloodbath in stock markets. October is a traditional month for share crashes.

He said: “Equity investors are in for a rude shock. The global economy is sliding back into recession and they are still not even aware that these events will trigger another leg down in valuations, the third major bear market since the equity valuation bubble burst.”

Edwards went on to say: “So far the equity market has shrugged off much of the weaker data that abounds, and has not joined the bond market in a perceptive move. The equity market will though crumble like the house of cards it is, when the [US] manufacturing ISM slides below 50 into recession territory in coming months.”

We are, he said, about to witness a “valuation nadir last seen in 1982.”

When the eurozone goes, it will go suddenly. One moment it will be there, and then it will have vanished into the historical annals of catastrophic human vanity projects that disappeared.

The worst case scenario is that a worldwide contagion begins on the European continent. August 1914 will have its 21st-century anniversary in four years. And the grandiose political vanity of Continental politicians will be again at the heart of it.

This sunny spring could represent a kind of Edwardian glow before the chancellory lights go out once more across Europe.

Read the rest of this piece on our sister site: Syntagma

In a TV interview on Sky News, Michael Geoghegan, Chief Executive of HSBC said the new 50 percent tax rate in the UK was “strange” and was causing many bankers to leave the UK to set up in Switzerland and other countries. He himself is moving his office to Hong Kong next week, although the banks HQ will remain in the City of London.

“I think when you start moving taxation for political reasons, the trouble is that it is an industry that can move,” he told Jeff Randall Live. Asked if damage was being done, he replied: “Yes.”

Hethought people in the UK had been given an easy ride because interest rates had been slashed close to zero, but he predicted pain ahead as inflation rises. “As interest rates come back up, that’s going to start squeezing and that does need to happen.”

Mr Geoghegan will, however, still spend up to a third of his time in the UK. He believes Britain needs to wean itself off debt and rein in its fiscal stimulus “sooner rather than later. How we finance our lives does need to change and I think, as the Governor of the Bank of England came out and said, we’ve got to start with our shopping list, we’ve got to cut our costs and I think that needs to start, not just in the UK but in other places, to stimulate all the economies.”

He said UK moves to toughen up regulation risked making the City unattractive. “The UK is leading it and it has been doing some very sensible things but the rest of the world hasn’t come forward so in a way I think maybe the UK is moving too fast.”